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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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